Shadow Inventory To Peak in Summer of 2010: Barclays

Shadow Inventory A “shadow inventory” of homes on the verge of foreclosure is bound. In Las Vegas, prices have fallen 57 percent from the peak four years ago. They are now at the lowest point since spring 2000. In.

“The market just stopped in the summer.” St. Charles. a lot of property out there that is yet to hit the market and could mean 2010 will be worse than 2009.” Shadow inventory is a wild card. But.

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CDS spreads there have been on the rise since late summer and 10-year yield spreads relative to. unsold vacant residential units overhanging the market, including the shadow inventory. Short sales.

Economic projections from the Federal Reserve and reserve bank presidents include typical growth levels (GDP) and inflation of 2-3% and 1-2% respectively in 2010 and for unemployment to level off in 2009 and 2010 around 10% with moderation in 2011.

HUD: Robo-signing settlement to accelerate principal reductions But it turns out that mortgage bondholders paid for nearly one-quarter of the settlement, or $5 billion at a minimum. These investors have long complained to regulators that the settlement was poorly structured because large bank servicers got credit for principal reductions and loan modifications they did not pay for themselves.

Morgan Stanley put the total number of homes in the shadow inventory at 8m at the end of Q110, and at the current sales rate, that would take 47 months to move through. Morgan Stanley is not the only firm trying to measure the shadow inventory. Barclays Capital reported that it could peak at 4.7m in the summer of 2010.

 · This puts shadow inventory at a supply of 5.3 months and represents an 18 percent year-over-year decrease. The data provider also reported shadow inventory is 34 percent lower than the 2010 peak.

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 · The peak sales volume last seen in 2004, inflated by speculator acquisitions and excessive mortgage money, is unlikely to return for decades, when interest rates cyclically peak. Relocating Baby Boomers going into retirement later this decade will be the primary propelling force in both selling homes and buying replacements beginning around 2019.

Shadow Inventory To Peak in Summer of 2010: barclays barcap: mers foreclosure issues may be spreading to commercial real estate Jon Prior was a reporter with HousingWire through late 2012. CoreLogic: 791,000 underwater homes return to positive equity "Negative equity is the most important predictor of default." The 25% plunge in residential.

According to Barclays Capital, there are currently 2.4 million loans in 90-plus day delinquency and another 2.1 million in foreclosure, totaling 4.5 million in shadow inventory. Barclays says that this inventory should reach the high-point this summer and then fall off, as the market absorbs an estimated 130,000 distressed properties per month.

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The inventory trajectory continues to closely shadow the pattern of 2010.. This pattern suggests that the housing. Home prices, which tumbled 33.7 percent from peak to trough using the.